Biden's Foreign Policy (v1.0)

 

Biden’s foreign policy is beginning to emerge. In many ways it is a continuation of the America first policy of Trump without the friction and obnoxiousness and immoral dimensions of Trump. This is true in Cuba, Afghanistan, Iran, China, North Korea, Europe, UK, Israel, our border, Haiti, etc. Our allies are surprised. This may not just be a temporary shift, but a long term sustained shift. Biden Doctrine seems to be “pragmatic realism,” pursuing U.S. interests “in a competitive world” and changing course as necessary to achieve them.

I am not sure I disagree with that. Compassion belongs at home – a prime example is Biden’s build back better bill currently being formulated. Foreign policy should be driven by self-interest. Not some moral high ground or some abstract principle. However, it needs to accommodate the people’s revulsion of immoral actions. Toadying up to brutal dictators is one of them. Another one is immoral and unjustified killing of civilians, for example in a drone strike. Drone strikes are difficult to ensure clean hits on targets and it will pose a challenge. Also, alliances are central to America to advance its interests and a source of strength and so are multilateral institutions like the UN. A relationship like that requires some give and take and cooperation and consultation. A few instances in the preceding months with Europe have demonstrated that the administration has not yet learnt that lesson.

America is refocusing on the indo-pacific and great power rivalry but the fight against terrorism will continue at a lower volume with over the horizon strikes. Since resources are limited, that translates to less focus on Europe and the Middle East. US leadership won’t be focused much on hard power like leading international military campaigns but rather on soft power like climate, vaccines, international company taxation, Aid, etc. Biden may increasingly revert to sanctions and other soft power techniques, instead of military force.

It will be interesting to see if the Taliban revert to being a brutal regime and if they do, if the administration will recognize them. The Biden administration has already written off Afghanistan as of little strategic interest and I won’t be surprised if policy focuses on just getting our people out and ensuring it doesn’t become a terrorist haven. It is also likely there will be some giving to NGOs and UN for humanitarian assistance. But the plight of the Afghan people will not be a priority.

America’s decades of effort at nation building are over. It is unlikely to revive again. Use of military will be much more thoughtful and responsible with a clear set of achievable objectives.

The focus for China won’t be on an all-out military confrontation but China’s claims in the China Sea and Taiwan may trigger it. A lot of the focus will be on competing with China on goods and technology and influence and power in the region. The focus will also be on damping China’s territorial ambitions and bullying.
Later Update: Two big confrontations have changed the ball game. Ukraine/Russia war and Israel/Hamas war.