Russia has and continues to do genocide, atrocities and war crimes against Ukraine. Their tactics are brutal and beyond the pale. The Ukrainians have fought extremely bravely and brilliantly and have shown gains for it.
The
key factor in my view in US and EU and UK response to Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine is fear of Russia’s intentions after that. Putin always resented the
breakup of the Soviet Union. He thought and said it was a blunder that it was
allowed to happen. Putin was a KGB officer in berlin when the berlin wall
fell.
Putin
started off before the war demanding a sphere of influence (like Belarus is
today) that included all the nations that are independent today but that were
in the Soviet Union. That raised big red flags in the west. Then he tried to
swallow all of Ukraine. He had already hinted his intent earlier by grabbing
Crimea and fomenting a civil war in Ukraine by supporting Donbas independence.
The world did nothing. Putin figured the world would do nothing if he grabbed
all of Ukraine. He figured Europe was dependent on Russian gas and oil and
won’t dare interfere.
Thanks
to the current Ukraine leader, Ukraine fought back and stood defiant. By
this point in time the west knew the dominos would fall in Eastern Europe if
Putin succeeded. All of these countries are NATO countries. The
west armed Ukraine and supported its economy. Finland and Sweden sought NATO
protection and becoming part of NATO. US weapons and advise gave teeth to the
defiant Ukraine president. EU mobilized and got rid of Russian oil and gas
flooding its economy.
The
Ukraine territory that was captured by Russian over the last two years belongs
to Ukraine. Until Putin agrees to that the war will go on if allies hold fast.
Ukraine likely will not get Donbas and Crimea. I think Ukraine knows. If
Ukraine waves the white flag unilaterally, that will be the end of Ukraine.
Russia will steamroll in and take over. Ukraine knows that. After that,
possibly after a pause, the Eastern European dominos will start falling.
Putin saw what happened to Gorbachev (Eastern Europe) and Khrushchev (Cuban
missile crisis). He will not go that route. He will not back down I think even
if it grinds Russia into the dust.
Just
to be clear, US is not selling weapons to Ukraine. It is giving it to Ukraine
paying for it out of its own pocket. The war is really costing US. Also, the US military industrial complex while powerful during the Cold War is much
diminished today. It is not behind this war. People saying that is wrong.
How will this end?
The first cracks will be flagging support in Europe and US to keep footing the cost of war and bearing the toll on their economies. The longer the war drags on, the more this is likely. It is really the ordinary citizens in democracy's which will start turning against it - the leaders know better. In the US, they may find their voice through right-wing Republicans who eschew US involvement in foreign conflicts and liberal antiwar democrats. In NATO, Hungary and Turkey ruled by authoritarians may assist the process. Russia is a dictatorship and does not have to consider public opinion. The people will be too afraid to protest. They will keep throwing people at the front line who are poorly trained and equipped and downplay effects of sanctions or defeats or battlefield losses. Many of these people sent to front lines are mercenaries or convicts promised freedom who are desperate. They will keep up their spin through media. They will brutally suppress any protests. But sheer numbers do matter. Russia will likely hold sizable ground in the end at a huge human cost to themselves and increasing disillusionment among the people of Russia. The hollowness of Russia's military that has revealed itself means it is very unlikely though they will take any new significant territory. Iran, North Korea and possibly China in the future are sending weapons to Russia. Ultimately Ukraine may be left with an agonizing choice of reaching a deal with Russia and cede some territory or fight on with dwindling international financial support and increasing costs.
Here is a different opinion on why Putinism is over.
The only wild card and hope is the remarkable Ukrainians with increasingly sophisticated western weapons miraculously manage to push them out (at least to the border on Jan 24, 2022) before the war settles into a stalemate. That would be a triumph of western weapons operated with their indomitable spirit and battlefield brilliance over huge Russian numbers. However not clear how much of Ukraine infrastructure and buildings will remain intact in the end.
There are very clear rules of war. Russia has decided to break all of them and thumb its nose at the world. The UN as a world body cannot take any action because Russia has veto power there. Russia is a nuclear power and direct war with it could spiral out of control. India and China and Iran and North Korea are choosing to support Russia despite that although India - the only democracy of that set - belatedly seems to be backing away. These countries are betting that the rule-based world order established after World War II (which has preserved world peace all these years) that defines the rules of how countries behave (and many of them enshrined in the UN constitution and the foundation of most of the international institutions) can be toppled and might become right and they are free to do what they want. It is a recipe for chaos and brutality and eventual world thinning out and impoverishment. The Ukraine war is not just a war for Ukraine but the fate of the rule-based world order and possibly the fate of Europe rests on it.
Biden's and the west's policy of arming Ukraine and sanctions may not be popular, especially in countries outside the west like the global south, given the strains on the purse and hardships due to sanctions and the effects of the war on the people, but it is right!!! It is in Americas best interests. As Mitch McConnell said "“If Putin were given a green light to destabilize Europe, invading and killing at will, the long-term cost to the United States in both dollars and security risks would be astronomically higher than the minuscule fraction of our GDP that we have invested in Ukraine’s defense thus far,”
Update on 4/20/2024: After months of delays, Congress finally passed a bill for substantial aid to Ukraine (both military aid, and aid to sustain their economy during conflict). 112 far right Republican congressmen voted against it.
Update on 8/25/2024: Recently Ukraine has taken territory in Russia proper likely to demoralize the enemy, relieve pressure on other fronts, and have something to trade for some occupied Ukraine territory back in an eventual deal and to hasten and motivate that deal to occur. If Trump wins the election Ukraine cannot count on American support.
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