My assessment of Trump and Harris (v1.0)
Wrote earlier but just added.
I will share with you my assessment of Trump.
I don't think Trump is directly "controlled" by
anyone, but he has "deals" with people/orgs. He also has a circle of
advisors, and I think he is susceptible to manipulation and possibly vulnerable
to blackmail (example things in his history are Stormy Daniels, E Jean Carroll, Access Hollywood. What else?). Also, I think he will not hesitate to make a deal with anyone if it benefits him. I think his decisions are primarily gut feelings, more than
arrived at after careful deliberation. Some people say he is a fascist. (I read Kamala and John
Kelly saying that and Mark Milley reportedly said it too). I don't know that
for sure. But the methods he uses to gain power and collect the loyalty of
people - I have never seen before used in American politics. Also, very
concerning are Trump's mental stability and age. Lastly, project 2025
blueprints by his people are very concerning.
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What Chat GPT AI had to say
about his style.
Your perspective highlights
some interesting dynamics in Trump's decision-making. It does seem like he
often operates on instinct and seeks out relationships that align with his
interests, which can make him susceptible to manipulation. His approach to
alliances and deals certainly suggests a transactional mindset, where personal
benefit is a primary motivator. The idea of being vulnerable to outside
influences, whether through advisors or other parties, adds another layer to
understanding his leadership style. It’s a complex interplay of personal
ambition, instinct, and the influence of those around him.
His movement and his finances are built on his
brand/persona and that is why his movement is called by democrats as a
personality cult. Critics say much of the persona is fabricated and he was convicted of fraud in accumulating his fortune and penalized. He adds to
this persona other methods for a full suite of political methods.
What chat GPT AI had to say about the Brand (2 responses).
Response 1:
The characterization of Donald Trump's brand as primarily a
fabrication underscores a critical analysis of his business practices and
public persona. For decades, Trump has leveraged his identity as a successful
businessman and a formidable figure, utilizing marketing strategies that
emphasize his larger-than-life image. This approach has been instrumental in
building a brand that appeals to a specific demographic, often characterized by
loyalty and enthusiasm.
However, a closer examination reveals that the mechanisms
behind his financial success are often tied to self-promotion and media
visibility rather than traditional business metrics. Critics argue that his
ventures have not consistently produced tangible goods or services that
contribute to economic growth in a conventional sense. Instead, they posit that
his wealth has been significantly bolstered through ventures that prioritize
spectacle over substance.
Moreover, since entering the political arena, Trump's brand
has become intertwined with his political identity, allowing him to generate
substantial financial support from his base. This has raised questions about
the ethical implications of leveraging political influence for financial gain,
particularly when juxtaposed against conventional business ethics and
accountability.
In summary, the duality of Trump's brand—both as a
commercial entity and a political figure—invites ongoing scrutiny and debate
regarding the nature of success, the role of branding in contemporary society,
and the ethical considerations that accompany such strategies.
Response 2:
Your perspective highlights a critical view of Trump's
brand and his approach to business and politics. Many people see him as a
master of self-promotion who has successfully leveraged his persona for
financial gain, often at the expense of transparency and ethical business
practices. This dynamic has certainly shaped his political following, as his
supporters often resonate with his image of toughness and success, regardless
of the underlying realities. The debate around his brand and its authenticity
continues to be a significant part of the conversation surrounding his
influence and impact.
Other methods added to his suite of methods. A Chat GPT AI analysis
Your analysis of the methods often associated with Trumps
rise to power captures several key tactics that have been observed in his
political strategy. Here’s a brief elaboration on each point:
1 Branding: Trump has cultivated a distinct
persona that resonates with many, often leveraging his celebrity status and a
populist image.
2 Media Echo Chambers: He effectively uses
social media and friendly media outlets to reinforce his messages, creating a
feedback loop that amplifies his narrative.
3 Misinformation and Villainization:
Trump’s approach often includes spreading falsehoods and framing opponents in a
negative light to solidify his base's loyalty.
4 Legal Threats and Intimidation: Using
legal action or the threat of violence serves to silence critics and maintain
control over the narrative.
5 Primary Challenges: By threatening
primary challenges, he ensures loyalty from Republican leaders who fear losing
their positions.
6 Election Integrity Claims: By casting
doubt on the electoral process, he creates an environment where he can push for
laws that could benefit him politically.
7 Legislative Influence: Aligning with
supportive lawmakers allows him to steer legislation in ways that favor his
interests.
8 Divisive Rhetoric: Trump often
capitalizes on societal divisions, framing political battles in terms of
"us vs. them" to galvanize his supporters.
9 Financial Exploitation: Fundraising
strategies often capitalize on his base’s loyalty, sometimes leading to
significant personal financial gain.
10 Legal Challenges: He frequently uses the
courts to contest laws or decisions that he views as unfavorable, often
prolonging legal battles.
11 Claim Persecution or Play Victim: By
portraying himself as a victim of the system, media, or political opponents,
Trump can galvanize support from his base, reinforcing their loyalty and
framing his struggles as a fight against an unjust establishment.
This combination of strategies illustrates a comprehensive
approach to maintaining power and influence. Each point reflects broader themes
in populism and political maneuvering that can be observed in various contexts.
There is one more aspect to Trump’s hold on his followers – The charisma factor. To me charisma – whether genuine or manufactured - is just another political tactic. An interesting essay on his charisma: https://theconversation.com/trumps-die-hard-support-may-be-explained-by-one-of-his-most-misunderstood-character-traits-charisma-236836
For completeness of his record, it should be noted that he was twice impeached, he was found guilty of sexual abuse, he was found guilty of fraud and heavily penalized, he was found criminally guilty of falsifying business documents to conceal payments to a porn star, he was criminally indited for obstructing recovery from his property of highly classified documents, and he was criminally indited for Jan 6 and his attempt to steal the election. There are numerous recorded instances of Trump not telling the truth (Washington Post count: Trump’s false or misleading claims total 30,573 over 4 years - https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/24/trumps-false-or-misleading-claims-total-30573-over-four-years/). Here is an article of examples of reported untruths in his recent campaign speaches: https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/01/politics/analysis-donald-trumps-campaign-of-relentless-lying/index.html.
If he wins, I expect 5 things.
1. I expect decisions would be more about what benefits him than
what is good for the country. (What comes to mind is Trump impeachment trials and misleading messaging on COVID)
2. I expect there would be significant deterioration in the proper
functioning of the government (what comes to mind is the promise of complete rebuild of federal bureaucracy by Musk? Revamp of DOJ? high disfunction of congress due to extreme Trump supporters in the house? medically unsound antivax policies by Kennedy?).
3. I expect no change in his exhibition of ethics, honesty,
decorum or self-promotion.
4. I expect significant erosion of rule of law and
democracy.
5. Foreign policy may bend more towards authoritarian nations than democratic nations. (what comes to mind is Trump's affinity to Putin and Orban)
My yardstick for evaluation of a president or presidential
candidate is three-fold.
- Effectiveness of advancing his policy positions (does not have to necessarily align with my policy preferences - that is lower priority).
- Character. He must be largely honest with the people, and advance the nations interest and honor his oath of office.
- Class. He is the face of the US and must conduct himself with dignity and decorum.
Trump fails on all three. We know his character and temperament - that is completely disqualifying. He is classless. On policy he had a few successes as president (BARDA vaccine rollout. Abrahams accord by Israel), and quite a few failures (COVID response and management and messaging, Afghanistan, Iran, wall that Mexico will pay for to name a few). Also if institutions are degraded, policy outcomes and efficiency in crafting them could be worse.
I give lower priority to my own policy preferences since
otherwise the field narrows a lot, and people have many policy preferences and
matching them all with a candidate is very hard. Also, I am not arrogant enough
to claim I know it all. Lastly as I said in an essay, I am pretty much detached
from most things except for Social Security/Medicare. I don't really have skin
in the game.
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In contrast, I am happy with the Biden/Harris record of
accomplishments described here: https://jaykasi.blogspot.com/2023/09/what-did-biden-and-democrats-accomplish.html
https://jaykasi.blogspot.com/2024/08/where-am-i-on-politics-and-economics.html
I voted for Harris and contributed to Biden/Harris/DNC.
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