Local 5: Examining recent Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHPI) demographics. (v1.0)

 In a previous essay I talked about the great emigration of native Hawaiians over centuries from the islands and the high mortality of those that remained. I also covered the foreign labor that moved in to replenish the work force. This essay examines the most recent decade US wide census data on the demographics and distribution of Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders. 

Less than half of the Native Hawaiian population, alone or in any combination, live in Hawaii (46.7%) in 2020, down from 55.0% in 2010. In 2020, about 14% of Native Hawaiians lived in California. About 4.6% lived in Washington. About 3.9% lived in Nevada. About 3.4% lived in Texas. About 27.5% lived in all other states. 

The proportion of Samoans, Fijians, Tongans, Marshallese, and Chamorro (Guam and Mariana islands) is much lower in Hawaii (highest is Marshallese at 18.8%) and much higher in California (as high as 70.7% for Fijians). 

The Native Hawaiian alone or in any combination population grew by 29.1% from 527,077 in 2010 to 680,442 in 2020. It remained the largest NHPI alone or in any combination group in 2020, comprising nearly 43% of the NHPI alone or in combination population in the United States. The Native Hawaiian alone population was also the largest NHPI alone group (199,880 or 29.0%) and grew 28.0% between 2010 and 2020.

The Samoan population continued to be the second largest NHPI alone or in any combination group (256,997) and the second largest NHPI alone group (133,148), representing 16.2% of the NHPI alone or in combination population and 19.3% of the NHPI alone population. The Samoan alone population grew by 21.4% and the Samoan alone or in any combination population grew by 39.3%.

Chamorro was the third largest NHPI group, with 10.2% of the NHPI alone population identifying as Chamorro alone (70,704) and 9.1% of the NHPI alone or in combination population identifying as Chamorro alone or in any combination (143,947). The Chamorro population was the only NHPI group that experienced population loss in both their alone (down 19.9%) and alone or in any combination (down 2.6%) populations. These declines are not surprising because of the improvements made to the 2020 Census to disaggregate data for the Chamorro and Guamanian populations and may also be related to demographic changes over the past ten years.

The next largest NHPI alone or in any combination groups were Tongan, Fijian and Marshallese, which all had populations over 50,000.

Native Hawaiian alone or in any combination was one of the three largest NHPI groups reported in all 10 counties, with the largest NHPI alone or in combination populations in the country (counties are Honolulu, Hawaii, Los Angeles, Maui, Clark - Nevada, San Diego, King - Washington, Sacramento, Salt Lake, and Pierce - Washington). Marshallese and Fijian were the only groups to appear just once.

Honolulu, Hawaii and Maui counties had the largest, second largest, and fourth largest NHPI alone or in combination populations, respectively. In these counties, the Native Hawaiian population was the largest NHPI group, with more than 75% of all NHPI respondents identifying as Native Hawaiian alone or in any combination.

Several other counties that were among the top 10 counties where NHPI populations resided all showed different compositions:

• The largest Fijian population in the U.S. (11,780) was in Sacramento County, California. The Fijian population was also the largest NHPI alone or in any combination group in this county.
  
  
• The Chamorro population in San Diego County, California, was the nation’s largest (9,391) and accounted for the second largest NHPI alone or in any combination group in that county.
  
  
• The Tongan population was largest (12,859) in Salt Lake County, Utah, and accounted for the largest NHPI alone or in any combination group in that county.
  
  
• The Samoan population in Honolulu County, Hawaii was the largest in the nation (35,965) and was the second largest NHPI alone or in any combination group in that county.

Why did the native Hawaiian population in Hawaii decline from a 55% share relative to other places to a 46% share over a decade? Does this imply a significant exodus to other places? In 2010, the Native Hawaiian alone population in the state of Hawaii was 80,337 people, and 289,970 alone or in combination. I don't think the 2020 census reported native Hawaiians in Hawaii separately from Pacific Islanders but 46.7% of 680,442 is 317,766. So, the native Hawaiian population in Hawaii alone or in combination actually increased (by 9.5% which though is less than the US wide 29.1%). Overall though, I don’t see definitive data signaling a major exodus. 

However, it is believed that the primary driver of any exodus that may be occurring in Hawaii is economic. The overall population graph below shows an overall population decrease since 2016. It is increasingly common for Hawaiʻi residents to be priced out of the Aloha State, where the median price for a single-family home topped $900,000 during the pandemic. On Oahu, the most populous island and where Honolulu is, the median price is more than $1 million. Many Native Hawaiians for example work in low-wage service jobs, and the financial strain is especially significant for these Hawaiʻi's Indigenous people. A state analysis published last year showed that a single person working 40 hours a week would need to earn $18 an hour to pay for housing and other necessities in Hawaiʻi, but the state minimum wage is currently $12 an hour.