Brief Thoughts on China (v1.0)
This is a speculative essay and not a factual essay. It projects into the future and explores some potential scenarios. I live in Hawaii. The US projects power in the Pacific from Hawaii and Guam. If there is a war with China or North Korea, Hawaii is a prime target. So, this is obviously of concern to me. I will focus on China here. These days, my interest in China is only as a source of threat to Hawaii.
I had written some narrow essays on Israel and Ukraine. I
had not really written an essay on the larger geopolitical landscape. However, I
briefly touched on it in one essay. Here it is: https://jaykasi.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-five-key-challenges-for-us-in-future.html
I also wrote about the rule based world order. The two essays on globalism adds to that. Here is the essay on rule based world order: https://jaykasi.blogspot.com/2024/06/power-in-us-and-renewables.html
Here is the Israel essay: https://jaykasi.blogspot.com/2024/08/my-views-on-context-of-israel-hamas-war.html
Here is the Ukraine Essay: https://jaykasi.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-brief-synopsis-of-ukraine.html
To me foreign policy is an exercise in the pursuit of
national self-interest. In a democracy the people will show the elected official the door if it were not so. It may be given a moral sheen. In a democracy, the
people may push it in a more moral direction. Alliances are to further group
self-defense and mutual advancement and often results in some
strategic alignment too. I expressed my views on foreign policy here: https://jaykasi.blogspot.com/2023/07/my-views-on-foreign-policy.html
One question I have asked myself is why is China investing
in the most powerful military in the world and at such great expense? Its
currently known local territorial ambitions does not explain it. Its ambitions
are global. It is aggressively expanding its sphere of influence. It is
attacking the rule based world order in multiple ways which is one huge flashpoint
with the west. What is its end goal? If China joins the axis of
Russia/Iran/North Korea, that is scary for the west/US.
Here is Chat GPT answer.
China’s military investments and strategic ambitions can be
understood through several key factors:
National Security: China perceives a range of security
threats, including regional disputes and the presence of foreign military
forces near its borders. A robust military is seen as essential for
safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Regional Influence: China's territorial claims,
particularly in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, are part of a broader
strategy to assert dominance in Asia. Strengthening its military is a way to
deter challenges from neighboring countries and the U.S.
Global Ambitions: China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
reflects its desire to expand its economic and political influence globally. A
powerful military can help protect its overseas investments and ensure access
to vital resources.
Technological Advancement: Military modernization allows
China to advance its technological capabilities, which can spill over into
civilian sectors, boosting economic growth and innovation.
Political Ideology: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
promotes a narrative of restoring national pride and historical greatness,
which often includes a strong military presence as a symbol of power.
Countering Western Influence: China seeks to reshape the
global order to reflect its interests, often positioning itself in opposition
to the U.S. and its allies. This includes challenging norms and institutions
that are seen as dominated by Western powers.
As for the idea of forming an
alliance with other authoritarian regimes (the "axis"), while there
are certainly partnerships emerging, China's approach tends to be more about pragmatic
cooperation than ideological alignment. The end goal seems to be a multipolar
world where China plays a central role, reshaping international norms to better
fit its vision. This can indeed be concerning for the West, as it could lead to
increased tensions and competition on a global scale.
In the 40’s economic tensions with a militaristic
nationalistic Japan triggered Pearl harbor and Japan soon joined the Axis, and
the US joined the shield (allies) for a true world war. Could there be a
repeat?
I am concerned with two main scenarios.
- A nationalistic authoritarian China with a strong military may have internal pressures and a strong temptation to settle it’s disputes through its military.
- Economic and military confrontation may precipitate a trigger event that ignites a war.
Comments