The rule Based World Order (v1.0)

 

For over half a century, the rule-based world order put together by the west with American leadership has largely preserved the peace, especially limited attempts to change international borders by force. There have been some local wars, but nothing on a global scale.

However, with the economic and military rise of China, and Russia’s renewed military assertiveness, some changes are beginning to happen. China has always pined for dominance or control of Taiwan and the South China Sea, and Russia for a long time under Putin has pined for the old Soviet Union dominance of eastern Europe, and creation of vassal states there under its thumb. Also, North Korea is a rogue state, and Iran has ambitions for long range missiles and nuclear weapons. North Korea, Russia and China are authoritarian states, and Iran is also close to one.

The response of the west to bad behavior by them has been sanctions. Military action is far more costly and wretched and may not even be feasible. But sanctions often do not noticeably change the behavior of autocrats who care less about what their people think and have at their command disinformation tools. Also, sanctions hurt ordinary people building up resentment and making them fertile grounds for state disinformation campaigns. Also, they force these regimes to band together to try and overthrow the rule-based world order and build an alternative system. It pushes them to form a resistance axis. Nothing is more dangerous than a cornered porcupine.

Kissinger was very effective in weakening the bonds between China and Russia with his approach of trying to help China enter the fold. For a long time, China was trying to stay in the rule-based world order and try to gain much more influence over its levers of power. But this is starting to change. It is increasingly resorting to bullying tactics, bribery and financial entrapment, and covert means, and just recently joined in a joint communique with Russia supporting it in many of its claims on eastern Europe.

It is true to some extent that the rule-based world order is like the rules of Calvinball: those who play the game make up the rules as they go along. But it has held remarkably steady for over half a century and the world has prospered. I (and I believe the vast majority of the world) would much rather stay with the rules today than trade it in for anything that China or Russia wants to replace it with.

Military conflict is the means of last resort, but are sanctions the only tools available to preserve the world order? No consequences for bad behavior will weaken the rule-based world order, cause the decay to accelerate and eventually melt away. Diplomacy will not work to dissuade actors who have no desire to stay in the fold. We must prepare for the possibility of the world dividing into two blocks (China, Russia, North Korea and Iran with Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, Saudi Arabia and others sniffing at the edges) – those who want to preserve the rule-based order and those who don’t, and act accordingly. The resistance to the block likely will be dominated by democracies. The future does not look good for peace and harmony. Note that many in the block are oil or gas producers. Energy will be used as a potent weapon. Also, three in the block are big nuclear armed militaries that can threaten to intimidate. But the EU and US (with a significant contribution by Japan and UK and its commonwealth) are economic powerhouses that can inflict huge damage, and NATO and US and UK are formidable nuclear armed military forces that can counter the intimidation along with South Korea. The US and to a lesser extent EU/UK have large military industrial complexes, and weapons can be used as a carrot for cooperation by nation states.

Russia has launched aggression against Ukraine. For now, the NATO alliance is holding well, and there’s strong unity with Europe. There’s also bipartisan support in the US, but I feel this is where the first cracks will appear that may eventually unravel things. With sanctions, inflation will get worse which will be politicized as we approach the mid-terms. Also, the EU will have an increasingly hard time staying united as Russian oil disappear from Europe and Russian gas stops. Some EU countries are more dependent on Russian energy than others. Also, Eastern and Northern Europe is more under threat than Western Europe which could cause interests to diverge. Also, some NATO members like Turkey and Hungary have strong relationships with Russia and may not act in good faith. As people feel the pinch, public opinion will turn, the balance in congress and EU will shift. The GOP is today a very different party than it was before. US support for NATO could wane after 2024, as we saw during the previous administration. I think this is the long game Putin is playing for. Meanwhile over time China will become Russia's main trading partner. Russia has plenty of energy and minerals. China is hungry for it.

A very thoughtful analysis of the world order in foreign affairs is worth reading.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2021-02-14/china-new-world-order-enemies-my-enemy