Musings from Jay (blog site permanently frozen 11/05/2024 morning)

  Wrote earlier but just added.  I will share with you my assessment of Trump.   I don't think Trump is directly "controlled" by anyone, but he has "deals" with people/orgs. He also has a circle of advisors, and I think he is susceptible to manipulation and possibly vulnerable to blackmail (example things in his history are Stormy Daniels, E Jean Carroll, Access Hollywood. What else?). Also, I think he will not hesitate to make a deal with anyone if it benefits him . I think his decisions are primarily gut feelings , more than arrived at after careful deliberation. Some people say he is a fascist . (I read Kamala and John Kelly saying that and Mark Milley reportedly said it too). I don't know that for sure. But the methods he uses to gain power and collect the loyalty of people - I have never seen before used in American politics. Also, very concerning are Trump's mental stability and age . Lastly, project 2025 blueprints by his people are very con...

A number of factual sections are from Chat GPT.   I will share the legal foundation in my view (first amendment and campaign finance laws) to which we can trace some of the dislocations in our politics and campaign systems.  Campaign and political speech are protected under the First Amendment in the U.S., but there are several constraints and regulations that apply: Defamation: False statements that harm a person's reputation can lead to civil lawsuits. Incitement to Violence: Speech that incites imminent lawless action is not protected. Obscenity: Speech that is deemed obscene (lacking serious literary, artistic, political, or scientific value) can be regulated. Electioneering Communications: Certain regulations govern the timing and funding of campaign advertisements, especially those that directly advocate for a candidate. Campaign Finance Laws: Restrictions on contributions to campaigns and the disclosure of funding sources aim to prevent corruption and ensure tr...

I spent a lot of time in the past understanding politics, govt, economics, finance, and international. Once I understood what I wanted to know, I dropped it. I think age 70 is a good time to let go of politics, economics, govt, finance and international if possible. They disturb your mind, and this is the age for calmer thoughts and endeavors. One should continue to observe these things but with much more detachment. No interest in discussing such topics with anyone going forward. These blogs are it on such topics. We are retired in Hawaii.   These days I am disconnected from the job market, stock market, bond market (a non-callable FDIC insured CD held to term behaves very differently than ordinary bonds), real estate/mortgage/loan market (your home is where you live possibly for life), and largely unaffected by interest rates until close to the end of the next president's term. Debt is 125% of GDP. A number of other countries are in worse shape, and they don’t have the uniqu...

This is a summary of my politics. I am a firm institutionalist.  I am actually a fiscal conservative, social liberal and overall, a moderate democrat (being a democrat also makes sense in my state where republicans almost never win an election - elections are decided in democratic primaries). I for one am a fan of Joe Biden based on character and accomplishments to advance his policies (see separate essay). I am no idealogue though.  In our country, tactics and opinions like lies, disinformation, falsely villainize an opponent, exaggeration, innuendo, deflection, applying spin, propaganda, spinning an alternate reality, defamation, conspiracy theories, false equivalences, prejudice and bias, ignorance, exaggerations, twisting what and opponent says or take it out of context, faulty reasoning, misdirection, tarring your opponent with precisely what you are guilty of, flawed whataboutism arguments, media echo chambers, stand up a bogeyman to attack even if it doesn't e...