India 2: Prime Minister Modi and his visit to US (v1.0)
President Biden hosted a grand state
visit and dinner for prime minister Modi for his Washington visit. A lot of
effort was put into it. Nonalcoholic drinks were served, and the menu was
vegetarian with a blend of Indian and Western cuisine ideas (meat was available
optionally if requested). Specialists were consulted to put together the menu. Modi
addressed a joint session of congress - only the third time a head of state has
done so twice. Many deals were signed including in technology, and
defense.
Besides great
strength in STEM especially in the south of India (I am from the south and so
is Satya Nadella and Sundar Pichai), The west of India has great
strength in business and entrepreneurship. Modi is from the west. Many motel
owners in the US are from the west. Patels are known for their business acumen
and are from the west. Modi brings a business-like attitude to
government.
India will be like South Korea - Try
to build up its own indigenous defense industry. It will be selective in what
it imports. They already have formidable capacity to build aircraft carriers
and other ships, aircrafts (a big part of the IAF though is Sukhoi su-30 and
MIG-29 from Russia), rockets for space/satellites, all manner of
attire/personal gear (like cold weather outfits, camouflage outfits, uniforms,
antimine boots, ballistic vests, chemical/biological/radiation suits, bomb
suits, helmets, etc), rifles, machine guns, grenades, mortars, antipersonnel
mines, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personal carriers, light
utility vehicles, troop carriers, multiple launch rocket systems, howitzers,
ABMs, some SAMs (depends on Russia and Israel somewhat), drones (depends on
Israel somewhat), Anti-aircraft guns, anti-tank missiles, cruise missiles,
ballistic missiles including ICBMs, helicopters, and radars. Modi signed new
deals with US during his visit for high end drones (general atomics) and jet
engines for high end aircrafts (GE) with a good portion of it built in
India.
India's arch enemies
are Pakistan and China. When US policy was tilted heavily towards Pakistan,
India formed strong defense supply relationships with Russia but remained
unaligned. It saw no advantage to get embroiled in great power rivalry. India's
issue with China is primarily border disputes. It only wants to defend itself
from Chinese or Pakistani aggression (Kashmir was a part of India when the
subcontinent was divided by the British that Pakistan later invaded - Pakistan
claims it should have been part of Pakistan in the first place because Kashmir
is majority Muslim). India and Pakistan have fought 4 wars over Kashmir and
there have been small outbreaks since. India and China have fought one war over
border and there have been small outbreaks since. Not sure India or Modi is
really interested in the South China sea or Taiwan like Biden is.
Can US trust India by
sharing defense technology? I have never heard of India being the aggressor. It
is not in that culture. However, I need to correct
that a bit. The closest India came to being an aggressor is when Bangladesh
split off from Pakistan. This happened because of an indigenous independence
movement that emerged in Bangladesh (called east Pakistan at that time) under
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The Bengalis felt totally exploited and oppressed by the
west Pakistani Punjabis who dominated the military, the economy, and levers of
control. India provided material assistance to the freedom fighters in
Bangladesh and actually joined the conflict. Pakistan was an arch enemy at that
time since it had invaded Kashmir, and India was worried about a huge refugee
influx, so it is not too surprising that India did that. The other instance is
when the coastal enclave of Goa on the southwest coast facing the Arabian sea
was under Portuguese control (about 1540 square miles). It was like a
small bite out of India like in Apple’s apple. It was really lightly defended,
and India walked in and took it over one day to make India whole. It might have
been better if India had given the Portuguese some money and bought it off but
perhaps Portugal was not willing? Hyderabad and Junagadh which are small
areas right in the middle and surrounded by India also were annexed. There may
be more but those are the ones I know of.
Indian policy focus has always been introverted. It liked
to take the moral high ground at the UN to lecture others but that has stopped
with Modi. These days it is very transactional in its dealings and leaves other
countries alone to do as they see fit. The US likely won't succeed in getting
Modi to condemn Russia for the horrific war in Ukraine. I don't think Quad
is going anyplace. India probably sees it as an opportunity to train with some
of the best militaries in the world to train itself to defend India against
Pakistan or China. India though has in the past been part of
multi-national or UN efforts like the Korean War. India will likely never
be a US military ally, but it has common values and will be a US friend. The
large and powerful Indian diaspora in the west also bind the two together.
The partitioning of India by the British is
interesting. The British wanted to leave behind an intact India. But the
regions that became west Pakistan and east Pakistan (to the west and east of
India) were the only largely Muslim areas and they rebelled at being part of
what they saw as a "Hindu" India. They created a lot of problems for
the British. The Muslim leader who led it was Mohammad Jinnah. Gandhi was
trying very hard to bring the Muslim and Hindu communities together and Jinnah
broke his heart. There were also hardline militant Hindus too. Gandhi was
assassinated by a Hindu extremist, Nathuram Godse, for his work to bring the
two communities together. The British were left with no choice but to partition
India or have a major upraising and bloodshed on their hands. The
partition event itself was gruesome. Many of the Hindu's in Pakistan fled to
India and many Muslims in India fled to Pakistan. Trains would arrive in both
directions across the border with all the passengers slaughtered by extremists.
It was awful.
That is why I am concerned that Modi's party (BJP)
with its decidedly Hindutva ideology could trigger riots or bloodshed
(relationship between Hinduism and Hindutva is very loosely like the relationship
between Christianity and Christian fundamentalism - Hindutva is a political
ideology). Coupling ideology linked to religion with a political party often
leaves the minorities with the short end of the stick. This is likely what
Obama was concerned about in his interview after Modi. I would be very
upset if GOP became a Christian fundamentalist party for example. When I was
growing up, India was largely secular (government not officially tilted towards
any particular religion) although there were some affirmative action programs.
I had many Muslims, Christian and Parsi and Sikh friends. The BJP may possibly
start with picking on Muslims, but how do Christians and Parsis know they won't
be picked on next? India please beware!! But I left India a long time ago so
don't know the conditions there now. Modi has been awarded the highest civilian
honor by 6 countries with large Muslim populations. So, I might be
misinterpreting things with regards to him. Also, Modi himself seems to me more
like an able executive and businessman than an idealogue.
When Modi was the chief minister of Gujarat (on the
west), he brought a lot of prosperity to the people. There have been lots of
communal riots in India. But a really bad Hindu-Muslim communal riot in
independent India also took place under his watch. Thousands of Muslims were
massacred, and many Hindus were massacred too. It was awful. An investigation
absolved him personally, but did he surround himself with bad apples? He failed
to protect the people. Inaction is also a cause for some blame? Modi was
denied a US visa for a visit in 2005 because of this. How times have changed!!
This is probably why some lawmakers boycotted Modi's joint address to
congress.
I wish India and Modi the best. India is a growing
economic, technological, and military power. It has vast potential.
For a deep dive into Hindutva, see below:
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