Govt 8: My views on US Immigration (v1.1)

I decided to write this due to a readers comment in another blog asking my position on this. It was not preplanned. 

Over 35 million lawful immigrants live in the US (most of them American citizens). About 1 million unauthorized people with temporary permissions live in US (through DACA or TPS). Estimates are about 11 to 14 million other unauthorized immigrants are living in the US. There has been a surge in illegal border crossings in recent years. 

The US has a problem with the southern border right now. Conditions in the southern countries are forcing people to migrate to the US in large numbers. It is estimated that 7 million people have left just Cuba, Nicaragua, Haiti and Venezuela due to terrible conditions there, for other countries. It is a hard journey with no guarantees of success. They are robbed and raped on the way, and scalpers take what little money they have. It is really sad. There is a good case to be made for humane treatment of these people (humane treatment does NOT mean open border). Keep in mind, a number of industries would not survive without immigrant labor because Americans don't want those jobs. However, the US has legitimate concerns too about security, drug inflow, and about the economic impacts. The border states have legitimate concerns too on its impact on them. Migrants board buses to go further north and those states are impacted too. Also, many illegal entrants game the system. Some bad actors are also taking advantage of the situation to gain entry. Lastly illegal entry is breaking US laws. 

There are also nativist (for lack of a better term) pressures to push out all unauthorized immigrants. But there are millions of them here over the years (some of them living for decades and many of them with US born native children) and they include DACA kids who have known nothing else. So therefore, it is not really a serious policy in my view (it is interesting that Trump said that in the campaign but did not do it). Policies like sanctuary cities also have consequences since it can result in a flood of unauthorized immigrants who can't take care of themselves who the city has to provide for with tax dollars. 

Trump's motto "build a wall and Mexico will pay for it." though was not a policy but political rhetoric. Mexico did not pay a dime. Most of the funds were stolen from the DOD without congressional approval. Only 458 miles of border wall was built. The wall consists mostly of 18- to 30-foot steel bollards anchored in concrete. The barriers also feature sensors, lights, cameras and parallel roads in some places. The vast majority of the 458 miles were constructed in places where some kind of barrier already existed, but most of the preexisting structures were far less imposing than the new wall and included fencing and rudimentary technical barriers. The total figure also includes what the agency calls “secondary border wall” or sections of wall built behind preexisting barriers that ultimately remained in place. Also, the wall was highly controversial and entangled in many lawsuits. It is completely unclear how effective it would be anyway. Biden halted further wall construction on assuming office.

Trumps remain in Mexico band aid assumed Mexico will go along when there is absolutely no value for Mexico in it. Mexico did for some time mainly because of Trump's threats, but it was not built on a solid inter nation foundation. It collapsed as it was bound to. Title 42 which was a Trump band aid collapsed once the pandemic wound down as it was going to sooner or later.  

Politicians can say whatever political rhetoric they want as a candidate. As a president you have to govern and respect existing laws. But nothing any president can do will work to make a real difference - need the full power of congressional law-making ability and fund allocation power. Since only Congress can allocate funds for a revamped border, there is not a whole lot the president can do without it. Some of the things I know were tried by Biden are: 

1. Trumps title 42 policy (a trump era band aid) was kept until it expired in May 2023. But Trump's remain in Mexico policy was attempted to be cancelled as too inhumane by Biden but blocked by the courts. Mexico however in Feb 2023 formally rejected the policy so it is dead now and the US courts are moot. As far as I know, trumps more inhumane policies like family separation are no longer practiced. 
2. Biden attempted significant foreign policy deals with Canada, Mexico, central America, and the whole Americas (in the summit of the Americas) to stem the flow with mixed results. Recently it reached a deal with Venezuela to be able to deport Venezuelans back to Venezuela directly (a major gain since this was leaving the government with no options for removing them when already in US).  
3. Biden granted work permits under TPS for many migrants from Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Haiti (all states where it is hard to return a migrant because of big issues in their home countries) who arrived before a certain date, so they are not a burden on the government. Likely will be challenged in court. Only Congress can change the law to allow asylum seekers to get work authorization sooner than six months after filing their claim. Right now, six months is the law.
4. Increase in border forces and judges and use of tech but they are not enough by a long shot. Case court backlogs are over 2 years. Increased holding and processing capacity created but nowhere near to match demand. Increased use of National Guards to take on secondary tasks so more Border personnel can do removals. Need more congressional funding. 
5. Removal. Given limited resources, Biden focused interior removals to a narrower segment who are threats unlike Trump who tried removing all and badly failed. Upheld by the Supreme Court. Programs created to speed international removals. Expanded Family expedited removal management program (FERM). DOJ crackdown on felony reentry cases. 
6. Escalated fight against human smugglers. From April 2022 through September 12, 2023, CBP and HSI arrested nearly 17,000 suspected human smugglers and seized more than $51 million in property and nearly $13 million in currency. 
7. Biden put together a new asylum claim scheme where people can apply remotely from their home without trekking to the border and causing problems. 
8. Use of ankle bracelets and other tracking tech to monitor released migrants waiting for asylum hearings. Not enough beds by a long shot to keep them detained. 
9. Kamala spent some effort in the early days to look at and address the root cause of migration but that is extremely difficult to do and can take decades!! Here is what she accomplished. PolitiFact | 'Border czar'? Kamala Harris assigned to tackle immigration's causes, not border security

There are claims that in Biden's term there has been open borders. This is false as of Oct 2023 from Feb 2021 (see Breaking Down the Immigration Figures - FactCheck.org). A better characterization is the border forces are overwhelmed by the deluge and looking for help from congress. The DHS data show 6.5 million encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border in that time frame, a figure that includes both the 5.8 million apprehensions between legal ports of entry – the number typically used for unauthorized immigration – and a little more than 700,000 migrants who arrived at ports of entry without authorization to enter the U.S. Of those 6.5 million encounters by CBP, 2.5 million people have been released into the U.S. with notices to appear in immigration court or report to Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the future, or other classifications, such as parole. There are certainly others who have crossed the border by evading the authorities. DHS estimated there were 660,000 “gotaways,” or unlawful entries, in fiscal 2021. A DHS spokesperson told us: “Under this Administration, the estimated annual apprehension rate has averaged 78%, identical to the rate of the prior Administration.” That rate would support a gotaway figure of 1.6 million from February 2021 through October. The 1.6 million figure would bring the number of those entering or released into the country to about 4.2 million. “The majority of all individuals encountered at the southwest border over the past three years have been removed, returned, or expelled,” a DHS official told us. The total DHS repatriations of 3.7 million would support that. The figure is 57% of the 6.5 million total encounters. The one caveat is that the total repatriations could include some migrants who were apprehended crossing the border some time ago and later were arrested and removed by ICE.

The key problem in my view is an unlimited quota for asylum claims in current law which do NOT align with the ability of our infrastructure to handle the claims or process them or detain claimants during processing or rapidly rule on them or quickly expel those who fail the claim. This quota is the key thing congress has to change and then aligning processing and detention and deportation capability with what they decide. The alternative is to release many into the US to be processed later.

Congress has not done its job in fixing a broken immigration system for a long time, and make the hard choices, leaving successive presidents to flutter in the wind. There is an impasse in congress with no solution on the horizon. What is really needed is a congressional policy (not an easy task to achieve!!). What is important is what deal or grand bargain can be reached in congress. A president can't really create this policy but just apply band aids. He can write an executive order, but it definitely will be challenged in courts and often overturned because constitutionally he does not have enough power to do anything really significant that way. Also, executive orders have no permanency. Congress makes the laws and appropriates money for programs. Biden band aids are not enough. Congress needs to act. I don't know what the right balance is between security, humaneness, economic factors, and nativists feelings, but it requires an institutional solution and laymen can't solve it sitting in armchairs. 

feel free to comment on your thoughts.

9/5/2023 update: 

Sen Lindsey Graham, GOP senator from South Carolina, said that the border and Ukraine would be tied together in a bill. Although there is still broad bipartisan support for Ukraine, it is waning to some degree especially in the GOP house. 

Just heard that Biden and DHS waived 26 laws so a 20-mile border wall can be built rapidly around Mcallen and Rio Grande in Texas. This is done using funds from Trump era allocated by congress that Congress did not take back and had to be spent by FY end deadline for a wall so not a new policy by Biden, but DHS recommended proceeding ahead.  This implies that DHS at least thinks there is some value to a wall, but it does not really solve the problem though. Or it may just be a demonstration by Biden to republicans how such ill-conceived walls legislated by congress will just get tied up in courts forever for a large number of reasons.  

Also heard that Venezuelans can now be deported directly back to their home country - an agreement with Venezuela. Lastly, the administration has agreements with Mexico to push back migrants to some degree and take some. Many democratic city mayors and even democratic governors are pushing congress/administration to act as they drown in migrants.  To mitigate immediate high stress on cities and towns, Biden recently allowed Venezuelans who arrived before a certain date to work legally under TPS (Cubans, Nicaraguans and Haitians are similarly treated) but it likely will be challenged in court.  

maybe - just maybe, a bipartisan bill to address Ukraine and illegal immigration in a single bill may be possible!! 

Update 1/27/2024: 

A tough bipartisan bill which is the toughest in decades is about to be unveiled in the senate that addresses border (along with Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan aid). Most crucially it gives the president much more powerful tools and big powers to effectively address the border. But Trump wants to sink the boarder bill likely because it will make Biden look good and heaven forbid may even solve the problem and Trump likely wants to keep the border a mess because it will help him politically. A nice article summarizing the situation on why everything Biden tried was not adequate enough.

Biden’s done more on immigration than Trump. It hasn’t worked. - The Washington Post

Update 4/20/2024: 

Aid for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel cleared the house and will easily clear the senate. But primarily due to Trump the groundbreaking tough bipartisan border deal is stalled.

Update early June 2024:

Because congress refused to act on the tough groundbreaking bipartisan border bill, Biden signed an executive order to codify a part of it that will allow immigration officials to effectively block migrants from seeking asylum in the U.S. when the number of crossings passes a certain threshold. It will likely be challenged in courts. Border crossings has now plummeted and is now at the lowest level in the whole Biden term. He also gave protection to unauthorized immigrant spouses and children of US citizens. This applies to about half a million individuals. In July 2024, CBP said encounters are now lower than the monthly average for all of 2019, the last comparable year before tough border measures were introduced during the pandemic by the Trump administration.